Mawston expects Samsung to carve out a 33% chunk of the smartphone market this year, up from a projected 31% in 2012. At the same time, Apple's share will inch up to 21% from 20% last year. Samsung could sell as many as 290 million smartphones this year, while Apple is likely to sell 180 million iPhones.
Mawston feels Apple should bring to market a much cheaper variant of the iPhone such as a ‘mini’ version. It could help garner more sales to go with its already dominate flagship iPhone 5 (or 5s if we’re talking about next year). Neil Mawston:
We believe Apple will have to launch an 'iPhone Mini' at some point over the next three years to address the hundreds of millions of prepaid users worldwide that cannot afford the current iPhone. The iPhone 5 is growing fast and profitably right now, so there is limited incentive for Apple to launch a profit-squeezing 'iPhone Mini' this year. We expect the 'iPhone Mini' to be more likely next year, in 2014, when Apple's penetration of the global postpaid smartphone market will be nearing saturation and Apple will be forced to discover fresh growth streams elsewhere
Low-end "iPhone mini" hasn't gotten the go-ahead yet because Apple feels such a Apple iPhone 5 product would bite into gross margins.
Apple and Samsung will continue to battle over market share as they introduce new flagship phones for 2013.
Samsung is expected to launch the Galaxy S4 this year. One initial report said the new phone could reach consumers this April.
Apple will have a new iPhone on tap, most likely a refresh of the iPhone 5. Though the iPhone 5 came out last September, some analysts believe the iPhone 5S could pop up around June or July.CNET]